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<\/figure>\n\n\n\nWhen confidence is high, the price falls and yields on the 10-year bond rise further because investors feel that they can find investments with higher returns and don't feel obliged to play it safe. But when confidence is low, the price increases because there is more demand for this safe investment and yields fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You're a bit confused, aren't you? <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Let's make it a little simpler. Our American friends have money in their hands and want to add to it. For example, in Turkey, everything is rosy, the risks and dangers are low, and the interest yields are much higher than in the US. On top of that, when our stock market is so cheap, especially against the dollar, he says oh, I can make good money here. In this case, what should I do with a crappy low-interest bond, he says, and he moves his money around globally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the contrary, it's a mess... The Middle East is boiling again. On top of that, a scourge called Covid-19 is all around us. Oh no. This time this friend says, brother, let me pull my money out of here and keep it safe in my country, even if it is low. This time American 10-Year Bonds start to rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In other words, if US10Y (the trading name of the bond) is rising, investors are looking for a safe haven.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I hope the story above has clarified the picture a bit. Let's take a look at this friend's graph together. We see a downtrend from 1980 to today. Each candle represents 1 week. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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